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Musk v Twitter: it’s not just lawyers who have an opinion on the likelihood of success of the litigation: the market does too!
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Despite entering into a binding agreement with Twitter, Elon Musk has backed out of completing the purchase of the company at $54.20 per share. Twitter has commenced action in the court of Delaware. If it wins, its share price should increase to around $54.20 from the current $37.74. On the other hand, if it loses the share price will drop to $37.40, the level it was prior to the announcement of the bid. From this it is possible to calculate the probability of success of Twitter’s action implied by the current market share price (using some assumptions). This market implied probability can be compared to that obtained using legal analysis, which can then inform investors whether to buy or sell Twitter shares. It also gives litigators a rare opportunity to back their analysis!
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